Shortly after I’d put the application in, I had news from my credit card company that I couldn’t afford the tickets, bad times. No fear though, Heineken Cup weekend this weekend, given my self proclaimed rugby genius, fine opportunity to make a few quid.

Then I saw the games and the odds. I suppose the reason not many of us make a living out of the bookies is the same reason so many of us are obsessed by sport. Its not always easy to predict who will win a game, when it is, the bookies ensure its pointless betting on it.

Here is what I ended up with:

What odds did I get on that I hear you cry? 0.72/1. I think New Zealand just got that little bit further away.

I was so tempted I had a go myself

You've got to be in it to win it

No. 8: Westgate St. The official breakfast of the WRU, not that you would expect many of the squad in there come Saturday morning. Still it couldn’t be closer to the stadium and a full Welsh for a fiver makes it a decent candidate.

Hayes Island Snack Bar: Something a bit different. Smack bang in the middle of Cardiff City Centre. This little wooden cabin bills itself as ‘Cardiff’s Parisian style, al fresco dining expereience’ while I don’t know about that, I do know that it does a cracking sausage sandwich and is a great place to watch the world go by. Its also not a pub, might seem like a mixed blessing but think about it, we all know there is a long day ahead, an hour off might not be the worse thing in the world.

AJ’s Coffee House: City Rd. Out of the main city centre and a personal favourite  this is a great place to ease yourself into the day. A plethora of breakfast options, bagels, waffles the lot. Clean, friendly, freshly prepared, free newspapers. Textbook.

If you have any other suggestions or have a dodgy sausage at any of these then comment here and I will amend accordingly

Structurally their attack goes out the window. Once they’ve offloaded and broken you, it becomes a scramble defence and that’s when it comes down to work-rate and desire.

‘You have to expect the unexpected and then react to it. That’s what we did last year against France a few times.

‘You can’t panic when they do open you up, because it will happen. You have to keep a cool head and make sure you don’t concede seven points.

Spot on. One of the highlights of last weekend for me was Evans’ try saving tackle, actually unbelievable, he must have been the only person in that stadium sure he had stopped a try, probably not even certain himself. It was only his desire that stopped it and that’s exactly what Ireland must show come Saturday.

It was fantastic to win the Grand Slam last year. So much so that if we do lose on Saturday, its not such a big deal. We won one last year. In fact I’m happy with we’ve won one. Although we have been the most consistent performers in the tournament for a while  now, I can’t be the only one to have thought they might be the nearly golden generation. Throughout last year they have got results which would have been near misses but for three things; composure, edge, Kidney.

So what I am saying is if they do lose on Saturday it will be to the better team. No-one can argue with that.

Oh, and Gatland! What is he playing at? He’s now engaging in mind games with an inanimate object? I’ve a lot of time for the Welsh but I wouldn’t mind Scotland winning that one. I’m intrigued to see who’s fault it might be

Wales:Lee Byrne (Ospreys); Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues), James Hook (Ospreys), Jamie Roberts (Cardiff Blues), Shane Williams (Ospreys); Stephen Jones (Scarlets), Gareth Cooper (Cardiff Blues); Paul James (Ospreys), Gareth Williams (Cardiff Blues), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Andy Powell (Cardiff Blues), Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues), Ryan Jones (Ospreys, captain).
Replacements: Huw Bennett (Ospreys), Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Bradley Davies (Cardiff Blues), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues), Richie Rees (Cardiff Blues), Andrew Bishop (Ospreys), Tom Shanklin (Cardiff Blues).

Scotland:  C Paterson (Edinburgh); T Evans (Glasgow), S Lamont (Scarlets), G Morrison (Glasgow), R Lamont (Toulon); D Parks (Glasgow), C Cusiter (Glasgow, capt); A Dickinson (Gloucester), R Ford (Edinburgh), E Murray (Northampton), J Hamilton (Edinburgh), A Kellock (Glasgow), K Brown (Glasgow), J Barclay (Glasgow), J Beattie (Glasgow). 
Replacements: S Lawson (Gloucester), A Jacobsen (Edinburgh), R Gray (Glasgow), A MacDonald (Edinburgh), M Blair (Edinburgh), P Godman (Edinburgh), M Evans (Glasgow).

Not much to report with either selection. For all his whinging Warren Gatland thankfully managed to keep faith with Alun Wyn-Jones. Fortunately for the Scott’s he has also bizarrely kept Cooper at 9. 

Max Evans misses out for Scotland, a little bit inexplicably. If they can find the confidence to support line breakers they may well be in with a decent chance of winning. I can’t wait to see who Warren will blame this week if they do.

Tip: Scotland by 1-5 points 15/2 @bet365

France Vs Ireland, 16:30 13/02/2010

France: Clement Poitrenaud (Toulouse); Vincent Clerc (Toulouse), Mathieu Bastareaud (Stade Francais), Yannick Jauzion (Toulouse), Alexis Palisson (Brive); Francois Trinh-Duc (Montpellier), Morgan Parra (Clermont); Thomas Domingo (Clermont), William Servat (Toulouse), Nicolas Mas (Perpignan), Lionel Nallet (Racing Metro), Pascal Pape (Stade Francais), Thierry Dusautoir (capt, Toulouse), Fulgence Ouedraogo (Montpellier), Imanol Harinordoquy (Biarritz).
Replacements: Dimitri Szarzewski (Stade Francais), Sylvain Marconnet (Stade Francais), Julien Pierre (Clermont), Julien Bonnaire (Clermont), Frederic Michalak (Toulouse), David Marty (Perpignan), Julien Malzieu (Clermont).

Ireland:  R Kearney (Leinster), T Bowe (Ospreys), B O’Driscoll (capt), G D’Arcy (both Leinster), K Earls, R O’Gara, T O’Leary (all Munster); C Healy (Leinster), J Flannery, J Hayes (both Munster), L Cullen (Leinster), P O’Connell (Munster), AN Other, D Wallace (Munster), J Heaslip (Leinster). 
Replacements (from): R Best, T Court (both Ulster), D Ryan (Munster), S O’Brien, K McLaughlin, E Reddan, J Sexton (all Leinster), P Wallace, A Trimble (both Ulster).

Well, here is a game. There have been sensible comments aplenty out of the Irish camp, need to stay with them in the opening twenty, can’t let them build up a lead before half time. The problem is simple. These things are a lot easier to say than do.

France in patches against Scotland looked to have the makings of a great side. They should provide a great game, game of the tournament if it wasn’t so early on. I’m as fearful as I am excited about the duel between O’Driscoll and Bastareaud, I have visions of BOD gingerly walking off the field clutching an arm or shoulder. Hopefully for the sake of the rest of the Championship, its just a bad dream.

Tip: Double Result: France-Ireland 7/1 @bet365

Italy Vs England, 14:30 14/02/09

England: Delon Armitage (London Irish); Mark Cueto (Sale), Mathew Tait (Sale), Riki Flutey (Brive), Ugo Monye (Harlequins); Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon), Danny Care (Harlequins); Tim Payne (Wasps), Dylan Hartley (Northampton), Dan Cole (Leicester), Simon Shaw (Wasps), Steve Borthwick (Saracens, captain), James Haskell (Stade Francais), Lewis Moody (Leicester), Nick Easter (Harlequins).

Italy Squad: Backs: Luke McLean, Andrea Masi, Kaine Robertson, Alberto Sgarbi, Gonzalo Canale, Gonzalo Garcia, Mirco Bergamasco; Riccardo Bocchino, Craig Gower, Pablo Canavosio, Tito Tebaldi;

Forwards: Matias Aguero, Salvatore Perugini, Martin Castrogiovanni, Lorenzo Cittadini; Leonardo Ghiraldini (captain), Fabio Ongaro; Marco Bortolami, Quintin Geldenhuys; Valerie Bernabo, Paul Derbyshire, Josh Sole, Mauro Bergamasco, Alessandro Zanni.

On the back of both their performances last week, the Italians could be well on their way to a nasty hiding. I sincerely hope I’m wrong but out of all the three tips this is the one I’m most confident of coming in:

Tip: Handicap England -21.5 @bet365

Incidentally, the treble comes in at a healthy 189/1

Ireland Vs Italy:

Both sides poorer than expected, opening weekend rustiness or not. There were brief glimpses of Craig Gower not being another ‘Bergamasco’ but all to brief. It was great to see O’Gara kicking with such confidence, another great sign for Irish rugby. Trimble shone when the light came his way, much more as an individual though than as a member of the back three. O’Connell showed some nice link up play along with his usual influential performance. On the whole though, lacking something in the first half and lacklustre in the second. Paris… vive la différence.

England Vs Wales:

At least a full 80 mins was played at Twickenham, nowhere near a game fit to mark the centenary year. I’d expect Gatland to be kicking himself more than his second row. Its fair to say Wales lost this game rather than England won it and undoubtedly the much talked about 17 points in 10 minutes had a severe impact. They weren’t the last 10 minutes though. I just felt naming and shaming a player like that was so uncalled for, against any good coaching principle I could imagine. Lets face it, those who are in glass houses shouldn’t dare do such a thing, who’s genius idea could it have been to have James Hook taking over as first choice kicker? Might that have been you throwing away 6 points there yourself Warren?

Last night on ScrumV during this very debate they reported that Wales would be sticking by their outstanding second row of recent times. We really should not have needed to be told. A far more appropriate came the following day from former captain Gareth Thomas who tweeted as much:

We should fall and rise as a team!!! Lay off Alun Wyn Jones media dudes.The guy knows he did wrong.I will be in trouble now, but whatever:)

Scotland Vs France:

The best half of rugby all weekend and should have been the best game had France not decided they had done enough at half time. The French looked dangerous, Bastereaud looked fairly dangerous, a bit too much like the Blanco of now rather than then to fit the image of the elegant French three-quarter. The team as a whole looked certain too trouble Ireland, next weekend should surely give us the game of the tournament I’d say. Scotland too have improved. Certainly some of the most valiant defence from both wings and John Beattie in the back row made his mark. They are not too far away, but on too many occasions seemed to lack the support that only self belief can bring.

So congrats again to the Dragons’ Will Harries. Providing huge opportunity to commentators everywhere to overuse again their phrase ‘backs himself’. Boo Hiss to Warren Gatland and a healthy go on ya good things to Kidney and the boys for next week.

The independent Disciplinary Committee found that Mr Byrne had re-entered the pitch without the referee’s permission and that he knew or ought to have known that he needed that permission. The committee found that this represented a clear breach of the Substitution Protocol, which forms part of the Heineken Cup 2009/10 Tournament Rules,

Fair Dinkum, I’d say. He knew the Ref should know or be told he is coming back on, he wasn’t, two week ban and a fine for the Ospreys. Job and finish. Six days later the appeal report states:

The Independent Appeal Committee, chaired by Rod McKenzie (Scotland) and also comprising Professor Lorne Crerar (Scotland) and Bill Dunlop (Scotland), found that Mr Byrne had demonstrated that the original decision had been in error and the sanction should be varied to a fine of €5,000.

I would like to know just how Mr Byrne demonstrated the error, did he do a clever edit on the footage so that actually he didn’t re enter the field of play? Was it more he convinced them that due to the defensive nature of the modern game and the specific geography of the Liberty Stadium, that having sixteen men on a fifteen man team really didn’t matter? I’d really like to know.I really hope what happened was Mr Byrne headed up there in his white uniform and with the help of his legal team produced transfer documents and the tower chiefs logs A Few Good Men stylee. The hearing ran and ran until one

Professor Lorne-Crerar

of the panel, probably Professor Lorne Crerar screams ‘You Can’t Handle The Truth’ and got arrested. Granted, this probably didn’t happen. 

Something did though, Lee Byrne pleaded guilty at the original hearing, the evidence is solid, what happened? Did they reduce the ban for a week, like with Dupuy? He had his ban reduced for his involvement from in Ferrisgate from 24 to 23 weeks? If we are looking for consistency and the same rule applies Lee Byrne should have had his ban reduced by 13 hours and 40 minutes. Did this happen? No. Lee Byrne got a 5000 Euro fine, a healthy dose of publicity and will be every commentators dream back story should his involvement lead to the Welsh taking home a famous victory from Twickenham on the weekend. To be honest if it all adds up to another beating for the English, who cares?

Well I suppose I do, really. I had a look through the IRB recommended  sanctions list earlier and although the specific misconduct charge, which Byrne has been found guilty of, does not appear, nor do any of the sanctions suggest a fine. To be clear, the IRB does not suggest fining anyone for anything. No fines. Not one. Nada. So if this sanction effectively does not exist how can the Independent Disciplinary Committee invoke it?

In the grand scheme of things do I think Lee Byrne should miss out on possibly two International caps for what was essentially an administrative error? No. Nor do I think, like this Leicester Mercury article that Lee Byrne’s appearance as sixteenth man had any impact on the result of the game, but I don’t think that’s the point. The issue for me is that the committee have ultimately seen sense and decided that the punishment was too great given the misdemeanor. Fine. Or is it? Does this now mean that an extra player on the field for 70 seconds costs 30 000 Euro? If I was Tony McGahan in the final minutes of the inevitable Munster Vs  Leinster Heineken Cup final, I would think 30 000 Euro for an extra man in the defensive line a small price to pay. Why wouldn’t any of the Six Nations coaches with a Grand Slam at stake go for an extra two or three?

For me, a great deal of the beauty in rugby union is found in its technicalities. The numerous rules constantly bent is what sets it apart from all other sports in my view. You might say what Lee Byrne has done has become the epitome of the professional rugby player, bending the rules both on and off the field to his advantage. Alternatively the ERC were wrong to punish him in the first place, surely substitutions are the one area of the game that the players themselves aren’t in control of? I think with the pending Attoub appeal the whole system is heading for, as they’d say in back in Perth, a bit of a bingle. 

Admittedly, I think if Stade, Attoub and their advisers continue with their anti-french campaign they are on a non-starter. Hire Lee Byrne’s guys, let them work their obvious magic. At the very least ask how a ban can be turned into a fine? If Attoub was up for International selection would he be able to play? If two weeks costs 5000 Euro do we give you 175 000 Euro and put the whole thing behind us? How can you find someone who has pleaded guilty, guilty and then admit to having made an error? Rules are rules aren’t they?

The problem for me seems to be with the back row, I just think it needs something new. Martyn Williams is and has been a fantastic player for Wales and I wouldn’t for a moment suggest his exclusion, it seems he is not making the impact on games he once did. As for the other two likely starters they too lack the intensity and influence that can be found in the opposition. Both have shown in the past they have the ability but never season through season. Powell particularly seems never to have regained the form of his breakthrough season. Looking around the other sides in the championship it hard to see him getting a berth even in the Italian squad. 

Its a similar problem upfront. Gethin Jenkins is undoubtedly world class, his defence is pioneering for his position. Its the guys next to him that give the problems. Its also a good example of Gatlands tired selection, surely there was room in the squad for Ken Owens? He has put in some great performances for the Scarlets this season, Matthew Rees, just back from injury, lacking in match fitness and ultimately boring. He can’t throw in either. At tighthead its good to see Lewis-Roberts being given a chance, I just hope that Gatland is not too dull to select him.

Behind the pack its the same story. Gareth Cooper has earned his place through familiarity alone. His clubmate deserves his call up and deserves to start against England but all noises suggest he won’t. Stephen Jones has been at best reliable, even if his kicking hasn’t been. Jonathan Davies deserves his chance outside of him but more likely he will go with the off form Roberts. Lee Byrne back at full back, and Shane Williams too is not bad news but neither will have had a lot of game time come February 6th. I think the one change he will be forced into is giving Kristian Phillips a go on the left wing. He has had some electric displays in the Principality League, I fear he will suffer the same fate as Halfpenny though, starved of ball as the backline makes every effort to get his colleague on the other side of the field the ball.

bet365 have England as slight favourites for the opener, if Warren sticks to his plan I’d say it was a fairly safe bet.

Good man Johnno, it seems he has the ability to manage the press off the field like he did the Ref on it. I’ve just read the bbc’s report on the squad and am left a little empty to say the least. Don’t get me wrong,  I will be as happy as anyone to watch England falter and struggle their way through another campaign. I’d love it, truth be known, its just I think to call it an announcement is a bit extreme. The BBC tells us that he has named his EPS (I won’t even start) consisting of  32 players, and a Saxons squad of the same number. So he has selected 64 players, tough job. 

In the rules the Guinness Premiership says you can field up to 2 foreign players for the full duration of the game. For arguments sake lets ignore (because I can’t be bothered to work out the figure) the reams of EU based players in the league to give us a figure of 156 players. So the legend has used all of that World Cup and Lions experience to whittle the field down to just under half. Like I said, tough job.